伴随着世界经济动荡和外部冲击加剧,我国从2003年开始的一轮“软扩张”经济周期接近尾声。我国将从2008年开始进入新一轮经济周期。据预计,新一轮经济周期波动的基本模式将仍然是“谷峰相杂”的混合型增长,经济周期的主体轮廓将延续稳定态势,宏观经济调控既要注重局部稳定性和长期平稳性,又要强调短期有效性和长期平衡性。稳健性政策操作将有条件地松动,以更有效地进行总需求和总供给的双重管理。
<<With the global economic turbulence and aggravated exterior affection,China’s “soft expanding” economic cycle that started in 2003 has drawn to a close. China will start a new-round economic cycle in 2008. It is predicted that the new-round economic cycle will still fluctuate with the feature of mixed rise combining peaks and valleys. The main outline of the economic cycle will continue the stable tendency. The macroeconomic regulation will place stress on local stability and long-term smoothness,short-term effectiveness and long-term balance. The moderate policy operation will be loosened conditionally so as to make a more effective aggregate demand management and aggregate supply management.
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