2007年全球股市呈现繁荣景象。但进入2008年后,受美国次贷危机引发的金融风暴影响,各主要股市均出现整体大幅下跌,2008年中国股市同样整体表现低迷,债券市场震荡上扬,基金市场遭受重创。本文在回顾2008年国际资本市场和中国资本市场表现的基础上,进一步对2009年中国的资本市场进行了展望,认为2009年中国经济增速可能放缓,但宏观基本面向好,通胀压力将会逐步减小,融资融券等相关股市调控政策的出台也将为进一步稳定股票市场打下基础,但是国际金融风暴的影响仍然不可忽视,因此2009年股票与基金市场可能反弹,但从谷底回升到繁荣景象将是一个漫长的过程,而债券市场的发展值得期待。
<<The global stock market took on a boom in 2007. But when it came to 2008,major stock markets have suffered sharp fall under the influence of the financial crisis incurred by the American “subprime mortgage crisis”. In 2008,China’s stock market performs not ideal,the bonds market rises with sharp fluctuations,and the funds market is seriously damaged. Based on review of the international capital market and China’s capital market in 2008,the article makes a prospect with China’s capital market in 2009. It is predicted that Chinese economy may slow down in 2009 but the macroeconomic fundamentals are still nice:the inflation pressure will fall down and the issue of stock market regulation policies including margin purchase or short sale will make a foundation for stabilizing the market,but the international financial crisis influence can’t be neglected. Therefore,the stock and fund markets may bound in 2009 but it will be a long course for the jump from the valley to the peak,and the bonds market is prosperous.
<<