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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    2013年美国宏观经济前景和美联储货币政策展望

    摘要

    美国经济在2012年出现了一些复苏进程减弱的迹象。欧债危机作为一个外部因素和财政开支削减作为一个内部因素都在一定程度上引起了经济增长预期下调。展望2013年,国际经济环境事实上在改善,联邦政府财政赤字和债务累积的当前影响也可能暂时倾向于缓和。美国经济增长业绩很可能优于2012年,并成为发达经济体中的佼佼者。自金融危机爆发以来,美联储多次实行了超常规的宽松货币政策并为拯救金融机构提供了大量资金。这些措施招致了许多责难。国际舆论的实质是希望美联储的政策决策兼顾国内政策效应和国际溢出效应,兼顾当下形势与长远稳定。美联储于2012年末提出将联邦基金利率挂钩于就业市场状况,实际效应是在经济复苏进程趋于稳定后延缓货币政策调整,而这很可能包含未来通货膨胀的风险。 <<
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    Abstract

    2012 had seen certain weakening signs of recovery in the American economy.Both of the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone,as an external factor,and cuts in the fiscal expenditures of the federal government,as an internal factor,have contributed to downward adjustments in growth expectations.Looking forward for 2013,the international economic environment is likely to be improved significantly,and the negative impacts of budget deficit and debt accumulation in federal government are most probably to be alleviated.Growth performance in the United States in 2013 should be better,and perhaps the best in the developed world.Since the outburst of the financial crisis in 2008,the Federal Reserve has adopted an unconventional monetary policy stance and supplied huge quantities of funds to save American financial institutions.These policy measures have provoked considerable criticism both at home and abroad.A real intention of international community is to see decision-makers at the Fed would act in the best interest of American economy on the one hand and take sufficient consideration of possible international spillover effects of its monetary policy on the other hand,for the sake of both current needs and long-run stability.The Fed indicated in 2012 that it will peg the federal fund rate to the employment conditions,and this would in effect postpone the process of monetary policy adjustment,which in turn might increase the risk of reemergence of inflation in the future. <<
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    作者简介
    贺力平:北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院金融系教授,国际金融研究所所长,主要研究领域为世界经济与国际金融。
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