在全球性金融危机爆发后的一年多时间里,亚太各经济体逐渐走出了衰退的阴影,出口呈现强劲反弹,经济增长迅速转暖,该区域经济也暂时显示出了与欧美经济脱钩的迹象。但与此同时,个别经济体出现了过热苗头,通胀率高企;在吸引国外直接投资方面各经济也表现各异。区内经济在稳步复苏的同时,出现了局部分化的现象。本文对2011年亚太地区各经济体的表现预评估如下:中国、印度、新加坡、越南、澳大利亚将有望延续强势增长;日本、韩国、新西兰、马来西亚、菲律宾复苏势头较为乏力;泰国、印尼、老挝、缅甸、柬埔寨等经济体则存在较大的不确定性。
<<The economy of Asia and Pacific Area has gone out of the shadow of recession only one year after the breakout of global financial crisis. The export demand has rebounded strongly,and the economy has quickly warmed up. It seems the economy of Asia and Pacific Area has decoupled from the United States and Europe. However,some economies in this area turn out to be overheated with high inflation. They also vary in their performance of attracting FDI. As a result,the whole area has achieved overall smooth recovery at different growth rates. In this report,we make the following estimation for each economy in this area in 2011:China,India,Singapore,Vietnam and Australia will keep their strong growth momentum;Japan,South Korea,New Zealand,Malaysia and the Philippines will grow in a weak way;We are expected to see many uncertainties in the growth of Thailand,Indonesia,Laos,Myanmar and Cambodia.
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