在过去的一年中,国际金融稳定性得到了一定改善。但是,金融市场走势对各国不确定的经济复苏、不同步的退出政策,以及欧洲债务危机爆发十分敏感。国际金融形势主要表现为如下几个方面:应对危机的刺激性财政政策和宽松的货币政策促成全球流动性过剩;国际资本流动更倾向于在增长差异、利息差异和汇率差异中获利;新兴市场经济深受发达国家刺激政策外溢性影响,同时成为国际资本的重要接受者,这将促进新兴市场面临国内资产泡沫形成的风险;外汇、股票市场因经济复苏前景不确定和发达国家公共债务恶化而持续动荡;全球负债证券融资规模有所收缩。由于存在一系列的不确定性,包括主要国家复苏可持续性、货币政策和财政政策的取向、全球失衡调整,以及中长期国际金融体系的重建等,国际金融市场在未来的一年中将持续动荡。
<<International financial stability has been improved over the past year. However,the markets are sensitive to the factors such as uncertain global economic recovery,different pace of each country’s exit policies,and the possible outbreak of European sovereign debt crisis. International financial markets have been featured by the following aspects:excess global liquidity has been formed due to anti-crisis measures of fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy;capital flows have chased the differentials in growth rates,interest rates and exchange rates;affected by externality of developed countries’ stimulus policies,emerging markets have become the principle recipients of international capital and have to face challenges of potential domestic assets bubble;foreign exchange markets and equity markets have been continuously turbulent due to gloomy prospect of economic recovery and deterioration of public debts in the developed economies;the scale of international debt securities have shrunk again. International financial markets will continue to be volatile because of a bunch of uncertainty on the sustainability of economic recovery in the developed economies:the choices of fiscal and monetary policies,the global rebalancing,and the reconstruction of international financial system in the medium and long term.
<<Keywords: | Foreign Exchange MarketInternational Financial MarketGlobal LiquidityGovernment Debt Market |