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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    2011~2012年国际油气市场形势分析

    摘要

    2012年,世界石油供需首现21世纪以来的宽松状态,全球石油需求增速创金融危机以来的新低,遭受制裁的伊朗、遭遇灾害的尼日利亚等国的产量下降被其他石油输出国组织(OPEC)成员国增产所抵消,但受经济波动、地缘政治和投机因素影响,国际油价高位运行。世界天然气消费则延续平稳增长态势,总体产量增幅超过需求1个百分点,保证了市场供需的基本平衡,价格的区域性特征明显,受页岩气开采大幅增加的影响,2012年北美天然气价格继续下降,其他地区则遭受价格上涨的压力。在高油价预期的推动下,2012年,世界范围内油气勘探开发(E&P)投资继续快速增加,重大成果是东非油气新发现。受十年来油价持续走高的吸引,资源最新评估结果较十年前大增2成,油气储量大幅增加,美国页岩气开发的突破正在重构全球油气甚至是能源版图,加快了油气消费东移、生产西移的步伐。与此同时,全球石油贸易规模继续扩大,亚太地区是主要贸易动力来源,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家进口量继续下降,在天然气方面,LNG贸易方式日趋活跃,增速超过管道气贸易,地位日益上升。2012年全球油气并购市场呈现并购金额和交易数量背反的特殊现象,并购金额创历史新高,但交易数量不增反降,显示市场并不活跃。 <<
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    Abstract

    World oil supply and demand in 2012 showed its first easing in this century. The global oil demand growth rate hit a new low since the financial crisis. Though the production decline in sanctioned Iran, disasters-attacked Nigeria and other countries was offset by increases from other OPEC members, international oil prices still remained on a high level for economic fluctuations, geopolitical and speculative factors. World natural gas consumption has continued its steady growth that the overall production increased a percent exceeding its demand, which ensured a basic balance between supply and demand of the market, and the price obviously showed its regional characteristics. North American natural gas prices of 2012 fell due to a substantial increasing impact from the shale gas. However, in other areas of the world, upward prices were always pressures. In anticipation of high oil prices, by 2012, the worldwide oil and gas exploration, development and investments were driven to grow rapidly, and the most significant result is the new discovery of oil and gas in East Africa. Being attracted to oil prices rising, the latest results of the assessment of resources has greatly increased by 20 percent compared with the figure 10 years ago. The U.S. shale gas development breakthroughs were restructuring the world oil and gas, and even the global energy map. It also accelerated the eastward shift of oil and gas consumption and westward relocation of production. At the same time, the global oil trade continued to expand. The Asia-Pacific region is the major engine of trade, but imports of OECD countries declined continually. As to natural gas, LNG trade has become increasingly active since it is growing faster than pipeline gas trade and having its rising status. Global oil and gas M & A market in 2012 showed a particular phenomenon that the number of mergers and acquisition and transaction amount are in negative correlation. A new record of mergers and acquisitions did not increase the number of transactions which indicated that the market was not active. <<
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    作者简介
    郭海涛:中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院副教授,经济学博士,主要研究方向为产业经济、能源经济等
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