In recent years，through the reform of industry structure and increasing energy efficiency，Guangzhou’s energy consumption and carbon emission have decreased significantly. However，due to the increase of total energy demand，Guangzhou’s future economic development will face many challenges from energy structure adjustment，new stage of energy development and relatively low technology level.In this case，by using ExSS model，Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion predicted the social economy，energy consumption and GHG emission level of Guangzhou in different scenarios in 2020 based on the analysis of the economic situation and future trends of Guangzhou city. According to the research result，we put forward a series low-carbon develop approaches and strategies.