长三角城市密集地区集聚着大量的人口财富,气候变化将加剧长三角城市密集区的灾害风险。脆弱性评估是气候变化政策研究的主要分析工具,为适应性管理提供参考依据。本文基于文献研究和案例城市调研,从气候敏感性和适应性两个维度选择指标,构建了长三角城市综合脆弱性评估模型。采用客观赋权的因子分析方法对长三角16个典型城市进行评估,分析了各城市气候脆弱性的驱动因素,并按照敏感性和适应性进行了分组比较。本文认为,长三角城市在未来气候变化、人口增长、城市化发展的多重压力下,必须关注气候变化适应问题,包括加强气候变化风险评估,将气候防护纳入城市规划,保障城市脆弱群体,提升城市灾害综合管理能力,促进适应技术研发与创新等。
<<The Yangtze River Delta cities have high density of population and wealth,and climate change will add to great disaster risks.Vulnerability assessment is a tool for analyzing research of climate change policy,and will serve as an reference for adaptation management.Based on literature review and case study,this article constructs the assessment framework model of urban climate vulnerability from sensitivity and adaptation of cities in the Yangtze River Delta. Then,it assesses the urban climate vulnerability by using the Factor Analysis,and gets 5 main driving factors,it ranks the 16 cities and points out the climate vulnerability types of the 16 cities;It points out that the climate-proof adaptation and climate governance of the cities lag behind their social development,which can increase climate risks of the cities.It points out that in the future pressure of climate change,population growth,and urbanization,adaptation is a very urgent problem and gives some suggestions,such as considering climate proof in urban development planning,building up the mechanism of climate adaptation governance,etc.
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