海洋经济预测是海洋战略和规划制定中一个重要内容。本文根据2001~2010年的统计数据,预测了2015~2030年我国总体海洋经济和沿海地区海洋经济发展趋势。根据预测结果,可以判断我国在2015~2030年海洋经济仍将处于成长期,海洋经济增长速度高于国民经济增长速度。根据定量预测和定性判断,本文提出了未来10~20年我国海洋经济发展的趋势。根据对未来海洋经济预测和展望的结果,本文提出应逐步建立并有序推进海洋绿色GDP核算体系,以及加强海洋经济发展战略研究、规划制定和海洋经济运行监测工作的建议。
<<Marine economy forecast is the important content in the marine development strategy.Based on the data from 2001 to 2010,this article has forecast the trend of our country’s marine economy and littoral marine economy.According to result of forecast,we can consider that our country’s marine economy is still in the growth stage,and marine economy growth speed exceeds the growth speed of macro-economy.This article puts forward that green GDP accounting system of marine economy should be advanced,marine economy development strategy should be formulated and implemented.
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