本文在分析住宅房地产市场特点的基础上,通过建立动态博弈模型描述住宅房地产市场运行的轨迹,证明这个动态博弈模型存在一个完美马尔可夫均衡,这个均衡具有的特性使我们可得出一些有趣的结论:在垄断市场条件下,住宅房地产市场价格呈现出上升——企稳——再上升……下降——企稳——上升的螺旋式上升过程;价格波动的幅度以及波动的周期取决于市场参与的广度与深度。在此分析基础上,本文对中国目前住宅房地产市场宏观调控提出了一些相应的政策建议。
<<Based on the analysis of dwelling real estate market characteristics,a dynamic game model is built to describe the path of the operation of dwelling real estate market in China,and we also prove that a perfect Markov equilibrium exists and we can draw the interesting conclusions as follows:first,in the monopoly market,the housing price will be the spiral path up from up to steady to up again till down to steady to rise again,second,the amplitude and the cycle of housing price fluctuation is determined by the width and depth of the market participating. Based on the theory analysis,we accordingly propose the policy measures on the marco-regulatory of dwelling real estate market in China.
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