基于1991~2012年增长,本报告以扩大人民群众文化消费需求和促进城乡、区域共享为目标,检测了2012年全国城乡文化消费需求总量的“应有空间”:支柱性产业测算16387。89亿元,消除负相关测算31454。22亿元,最佳比值测算35908。14亿元,最小城乡比测算46029。58亿元,弥合城乡比测算51617。12亿元,城乡无差距测算81208。89亿元,地区无差距测算109504。06亿元,而实际总量仅为11405。97亿元。全国城乡文化消费需求相关方面的增长差距一目了然:一方面在于经济增长与基本民生、文化民生增进的协调性差距;另一方面在于城乡之间、地区之间文化民生增进的均衡性差距。基于以上分析,至2020年全国文化消费总量增长空间测算如下:历年均增值目标33616。15亿元,支柱性产业目标54838。25亿元,消除负相关目标117671。11亿元,最佳比值目标120158。23亿元,最小城乡比目标155310。50亿元,弥合城乡比目标172284。35亿元,城乡无差距目标271746。66亿元,地区无差距目标381147。04亿元。
<<Based upon the growth from 1991 to 2012,and aiming at the target of extended demotic cultural consumption demand and advanced sharing between urban and rural areas,and among various regions,measuring to the “due space” of the countrywide total cultural consumption demand in urban-rural areas in 2012 are as follows:16387.89 billion yuan in the valued pillar industry;31454.22 billion yuan in the valued avoiding negative correlation;35908.14 billion yuan in the valued optimal proportion;46029.58 billion yuan in the valued lowest urban-rural ratio;51617.12 billion yuan in the valued closed urban-rural ratio;81208.89 billion yuan in the valued without urban-rural gap;109504.06 billion yuan in the valued without regional gap. But the actual gross is only 11405.97 billion yuan. It is clear at a glance which the growth distance with regard to countrywide cultural consumption demand in urban-rural areas had two dimensions:on the one hand,that consist in the harmonious difference of economic increase and basic people’s livelihood and cultural people’s livelihood enhancement;on the other hand,that consist in the statuesque difference of cultural people’s livelihood enhancement between urban and rural areas,and among various regions. Based upon the above analysis,the total growth space of countrywide cultural consumption to 2020 are estimated as follows:33616.15 billion yuan in the target of average added value over the years;54838.25 billion yuan in the target of pillar industry;117671.11 billion yuan in the target of avoiding negative correlation;120158.23 billion yuan in the target of optimal proportion;155310.50 billion yuan in the target of lowest urban-rural ratio;172284.35 billion yuan in the target of closed urban-rural ratio;271746.66 billion yuan in the target without urban-rural gap;381147.04 billion yuan in the target without regional gap.
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