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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    工业经济形势及趋势分析

    摘要

    2013年中国工业实现了平稳较快增长,总体上呈现前低后高的走势。分产业看,不同行业增速出现分化,部分高加工度行业加快回升。分地区来看,东部地区积极回升,但增速仍低于中西部。出口增长仍较为低迷,下半年以来有所回升。工业企业效益明显好转,但工业投资增速仍处于较低水平,说明企业家信心尚未恢复。2014年中国工业面临着很多新的形势。从外部环境来看,世界经济恢复步伐加快,进出口贸易将逐步回升,但仍存在较大不确定性;全球金融环境将有所收紧,但货币供应总体依然宽松。从内部环境来看,工业经济进入“换挡”期,产能过剩等结构性问题更加突出,全面深化改革将加快工业转型升级进展。预计2014年工业经济增长仍处于总体可控范围内,维持在9。5%左右,全年呈“先抑后稳”走势。

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    Abstract

    In 2013 China’s industry achieved a steady and rapid economic growth,which is low in the first and the high in the second.From the view of industries,different industry growth appears different,and some high processing industry speeds up recovery.In regional perspective,the eastern region rebounds actively,but the growth rate is still lower than the central and the western.Export growth is still depressed,but it rises again in the second half of the year.Besides,efficiency of industrial enterprises has markedly improved,but the industrial investment growth rate is still at a low level,which reflects the entrepreneur confidence has not yet resumed.In 2014,China’s industry is faced with many new situations.From the external environment,the pace of world economic recovery speeds up,import and export trade will gradually rise,but there are still large uncertainties.Global financial environment tighten while the overall of money supply is still loose.From the internal environment,industrial economy enters a shift period,the structural problems such as capacity excess are more prominent,and the deepen reform accelerates the upgrading of.industrial transformation.It is estimated that the overall of the industrial economic growth in 2014 is still in the controllable range,which maintains at about 9.5%,and the annual industrial economic growth will show a trend of suppression first before stability.

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    作者简介
    金碚:金碚,中国社会科学院学部委员,研究员
    原磊:原磊,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所工业运行研究室副主任,副研究员。
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