中国经济增长的减速,是人口红利消失导致的供给方因素减弱所致,而不是需求方的冲击所致,因此,实施大规模刺激性政策是错误的选项。除了不恰当的刺激政策可能造就僵尸企业和僵尸金融、造成实体经济和基础设施产能过剩、流动性溢出形成泡沫经济之外,借助刺激性政策尝试超越潜在增长率还会扭曲劳动力市场信号,造成教育负激励和工资超越劳动生产率的更快上涨,从而伤害中国经济长期增长的可持续性。研究显示,公共政策改革可以提高潜在增长率、平衡经济增长需求结构和减缓工资上涨压力,进而在人口红利消失之后收取改革红利。
<<This paper asserts that the economic slowdown in China is caused by the short-term demandside shock but not by supplyside factors- namely,the disappearance of demographic dividend.Therefore,implementing stimulation policy is a wrong choice in the face of the slowdown.In addition to creating zombie firms and zombie financial institutions,resulting in overcapacity in real economy and infrastructure,and forming economic bubbles,stimulation policy also tends to harm labor market.That is,a growth rate exceeding growth capacity tends to distort labor market signals by weakening incentive for education and inflating wage rate in faster pace than that of the increase in labor productivity.The paper suggests that instead of implementing stimulation policy,reform of public policy can help enhance potential growth rate,balance demand factors of the growth,and ease the pressure of labor cost increase.
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