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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    2013~2014年日本经济与中日经贸关系 现状、问题与展望

    摘要

    2013年的日本经济在安倍经济学的刺激下出现了短期的效果,在股市上扬的资产效应带动下,消费有所扩大;由于世界经济形势下行压力趋缓,加之日元贬值,也使日本的出口出现好转。日本经济出现连续四个季度的正增长,但复苏势头呈减弱趋势,2014年4月提高消费税率以后,私人消费将不可避免地受到冲击,经济增长速度将明显下降。钓鱼岛争端对中日经济关系造成的严重影响仍在延续,2013年双边贸易持续负增长,相互投资也出现负增长,中日互购国债与人民币直接交易受挫,中日韩自贸区谈判无实质性进展,“政冷经冷”的态势越来越明显,中日经济关系陷入邦交正常化以来的最低点。由于安倍政权倒行逆施,悍然参拜靖国神社,使中日关系蒙上浓厚的阴影,2014年中日经贸合作关系也变得难以预测。

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    Abstract

    In 2013,Japanese economy had a short-term effect under the stimulation of “Abenomics”,specifically as follows:the consumption has expanded by the assets effect of the stock market’s rising,and Japanese exports have improved by the world economy downward pressure’s slowing and the depreciation of the yen. Japanese economy has continued positive growth for four quarters,but the trend of the recovery is weakening,and after the consumption tax was increased in April 2014,private consumption will inevitably be under attack,so the economic growth rate will drop significantly. The serious influence of the Diaoyu Islands Dispute on Sino-Japanese economic relations has continued,including:bilateral trade and mutual investment have experienced negative growth,Sino-Japanese mutual purchase of treasury bills and direct trade have been frustrated,the negotiations of China,Japan and Korea FTA haven’t achieved substantial progress. The trend of “both politics and economics are cold” has become more and more obvious,and the Sino-Japanese economic relations have fallen to the lowest point since the normalization of diplomatic relations. The Sino-Japanese relations have been overshadowed by Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine,and the economic and trade cooperation has become difficult to predict.

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    作者简介
    张季风:张季风,经济学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所研究员、所长助理,全国日本经济学会秘书长、常务理事。主要研究方向为日本经济、中日经济关系、区域经济等。
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