长期以来,中国国内研究过多关注了日本房地产泡沫破灭问题,对于日本房地产泡沫存在认识误区。战后日本房地产市场主要经历了五个发展阶段,出现过三次房地产泡沫,1986~1991年房地产泡沫最终破灭。今天中国的房地产市场与高速增长时期的日本房地产泡沫具有惊人相似性。笔者认为,从长期整体趋势上看,中国城市房地产市场仍然存在上升空间,但这并不排除个别地区房地产泡沫破灭和个别房地产项目崩盘。
<<For long time,many researches have concerned a lot about the collapse of Japanese real estate’s bubble,which exists some misunderstanding. After the war,the Japanese real estate market has gone through five major stages of development,and has arisen three times of the real estate bubble. But only the real estate bubble from 1986 to 1991 eventually collapsed totally. Currently,the real estate market in China bears a striking similarity to the stage of rapidly increasing of the Japanese real estate. The author thinks that,from the perspective of long-term overall trend,there still is room for growth in urban real estate market of China. But that does not rule out the crash of the housing bubble in some areas and individual real estate project.
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