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2008年美国经济面临的最大风险是房地产价格泡沫的破灭与次级债危机的恶化。目前美国房地产市场正处于销售疲软、存货增加和价格下滑的恶性循环之中，次级债危机的爆发加剧了美国房地产市场泡沫的破灭，延长了房地产市场衰退期，预计未来1～2年里房价仍将继续下滑，由此带来的负面财富效应，使得消费放缓的可能性较高。美国房地产泡沫破裂对于经济增长的负面影响，将明显超过2000年IT泡沫破灭对于美国经济的拖累程度，美国经济有陷入衰退的可能，其概率大致为30%。如果发生衰退，经济增长率在1%左右。然而，在一些有利因素的支撑下，2008年美国经济依然有望实现软着陆，其概率大致为70%，经济增长率在2%左右。
<<In 2008，the biggest risk of the United States economy is the housing price adjustment and deterioration of subprime mortgage crisis. The current housing market in the United States is in the vicious circle of weak sales，inventory increase and falling prices，the outbreak of subprime mortgage crisis accelerates the burst process of housing market bubble，extends the duration of the housing market recession，housing price is expected to decline in the next 1-2 years，negative wealth effect probably make the consumer expenditure slowdown.The negative impact on economic growth of currently housing price adjustment in the United States will be worsen than the drag on the economy of 2000 IT bubble burst，the United States economy was on the verge of recession，the probability of recession is about 30%.If U.S.economy is in recession，economic growth will be near 1%.However，a number of favorable factors will support the economy of the United States in 2008，the probability of moderate growth is about 70%，in this scenario the growth rate is expected to be about 2%.
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