2007年,拉美经济增长率预计为5%,这意味着拉美经济已连续5年增长。当前拉美经济呈现出以下几个显著特点:在连续5年的增长中,最近4年的增长率很高;所有拉美国家的经济都在增长;增长的动力主要来自外部因素;一些拉美国家的经常项目顺差与经济增长同时出现;对外贸易取得较快的增长;外国直接投资(FDI)的净流入量有所减少;外债负担在减轻;财政形势在好转;通货膨胀率持续下降;国内需求在扩大;经济增长扩大了对劳动力的需求;许多国家的货币面临着升值的压力。
但拉美经济依然面临着多方面的挑战:如何减少对初级产品出口的依赖;如何在减少政府开支的同时加大对社会发展领域的投入;如何增加投资;投资不足始终是拉美国家面临的难题;如何避免“荷兰病”;如何提高国际竞争力。
<<In 2007 Latin American economy is expected to grow at 5%,representing a fifth consecutive year of growth. The current round of Latin America’s economic boom exhibits the following characteristics:Almost all the countries of the region have had relatively high growth rates,mainly due to favorable external factors.Unlike the past,in many countries,current account surplus co-exists with strong growth.While foreign trade expands remarkably and foreign debt burn decreases,net FDI inflow declines.At the same tome,fiscal situation improves and inflation rate continues to drop.Moreover,growing domestic demand and economic growth stimulate job creation. But the pressure on currency appreciation is on the rise.
Despite continued high growth,Latin American economy is still faced with such challenges as how to curb dependence upon commodity exports,how to increase government spending on social development and reduce public expenditures at the same time,how to boost investment in infrastructures,how to avoid”Dutch disease”,and how to strengthen international competitiveness.
<<Keywords: | ChallengeLatin American Economy |