系统性金融风险的事前预警、事中判断和事后总结关系到金融危机蔓延的范围及其对实体经济的冲击程度。系统性金融风险涉及金融体系的流动性、杠杆、关联性等问题。与金融危机的爆发不同,系统性金融风险可以表现为一个可观测的连续变量,其评估和预警方法可分为时间维度和空间维度等方法,可以从单个金融机构、金融机构间的相互关系以及整个金融系统网络等几个角度去研究。总体而言,系统性金融风险的度量和预警研究仍处于初级阶段。
<<The early warning,in process judgment and final conclusion of Systemic Risk relates to the influencing scope of Financial Crisis and the influencing degree of Financial Crisis on Real economy. Meanwhile,Systemic Risk represents a continuous variable which differs from Financial Crisis. The evaluation and early warning methods of Systemic Risk can be divided into Time Dimension method,Spatial Dimension method,Stress Testing method of Systemic Risk and other methods. Systemic Risk involves liquidity,leverage,interrelation and other issues. These researches mainly focus on three aspects:Point (financial institutions),Line (correlation),and Net (system network). In a word,Systemic Risk Measurement and Early Warning Research are still on the initial stage.
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