对中国经济增长率60年的波动曲线进行回顾与展望。根据增长曲线的变化,归纳出波动特点;改革开放以来,增长曲线背后经济结构发生了变化,这些新变化也是推动中国经济今后继续增长的重要因素;预计未来新一轮经济周期即将来临;为了努力延长新一轮经济周期的上升阶段,要把握好两点:一是要把握好新一轮周期的波形,二是要把握好新一轮周期的适度增长区间,其中,特别对新一轮周期中城市化和住宅业的重要作用,以及如何有效地解决房价不断上涨问题进行了分析。
<<This paper makes review and forecast to the fluctuation curve of Chinese economic growth rate for 60 years. According to the changes of growth curve,the fluctuation characteristics are induced;Since the reform and opening,behind the growth curve,the economic structure has had the changes,and these new changes are also the important factors which impel the Chinese economy to keep growth for the future;It is estimated that,the new round of economic cycle will come soon in the future;To lengthen the ascent stage of the new round of economic cycle,following two points must be seized:one is the waveform of the new round of economic cycle;another is the moderate growth sector of the economic cycle,in which the influential role of urbanization and estate industry in the new round of economic cycle as well as how to effectively solve the problem about the unceasing rise in house price are made an analysis especially.
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