2009年,中国政府及时采取积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,货币供应量增速提高,国内信贷大幅度增加,经济主体信心得到较快恢复,经济增速稳步回升,目前的形势是国内需求稳步走高,外需降幅收窄,物价有望走出低迷区间。经济回暖超出预期,但值得关注的问题包括:货币供应量增速远远超出GDP增速,同时房价上行明显使通货膨胀预期加强,新增贷款向政府投融资平台集中,另外国际资本回流,美元汇率走低,加强了人民币升值预期等也需要引起高度关注。
<<In 2009,the Chinese government adopts the proactive fiscal policy and the moderately loose monetary policy promptly,which the speeding-up of money supply has enhanced,the domestic credit has increased largely,the economic subject has recovered confidence quickly,the economic growth speed is rising again steadily;at present,the domestic demand is creasing steadily,the range of external demand drop is narrowing,and it is hopeful for the price to get away from the downturn. The economic recovery has surpassed expectation,but,the problems that is worth attention include,the money supply speeding-up far exceeds the GDP speeding-up,simultaneously the rise of house price has obviously strengthened the expectation of inflation,newly increased loan is centralized on the government’s financing platform,moreover the international capital withdrawal and the depreciation of US dollar exchange rate strengthen the expectation of Renminbi upvaluation,and so on.
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