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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    2009年我国进出口贸易形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2009年前8个月我国商品进出口贸易总额比上年同期下降22。4%,并呈现以下特点:一是2009年7、8两个月的月度商品出口额恢复到千亿美元以上;二是双边贸易排序变化,东盟市场地位上升;三是低技术劳动密集型产品出口更具有抵御市场需求下降风险的能力;四是进口商品价跌甚于量跌,是进口储备资源的好时机;五是国际分工格局没有大的变动,跨国公司主导的国际贸易仍然占据主流;六是出口退税已到极限,再加大其政策强度的回旋空间已经很小;七是国际贸易保护主义抬头,我国出口贸易频频遭遇贸易救济调查。在应对国际金融危机影响中,外贸企业除了依靠国家政策的支持,还应创造新的经验,加强企业间联合与合作的行为,形成了抵御国际金融危机影响的竞争优势因素。

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    Abstract

    In the first eight months of 2009,China’s total amount of commodity import-export trade had a drop of 22.4% over the ones in previous year,and the following characteristics were presented:First,in both July and August of 2009,monthly amounts of commodity export had restored to 100 billion US dollars above;Second,the ordering of bilateral trade changed,and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)market position rose;Third,the low-tech labor-intensive product export had more ability to resist the risk of market demand downside;Fourth,the imported goods depreciation was more severe than the quantity falling,which was a good opportunity to import the reserve resources;Fifth,the pattern of international division of work had not big change,the international trade led by the multinational corporation was still mainstream;Sixth,the tax reimbursement for export arrived at the limit,the leeway to increase its policy strength had be very small;Seventh,the international trade protectionism rose,and China’s export trade repeatedly encountered the trade remedy investigation. In dealing with the influence of international financial crisis,except for the dependence on the support of national policy,the foreign-trade enterprises had also created the new experiences,had strengthened the union and cooperation among the enterprises,which has formed the competitive advantages to resist the influence of international financial crisis.

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    作者简介
    裴长洪:裴长洪,中国社会科学院财政与贸易经济研究所所长、研究员;主要研究国际贸易与投资、国际金融与服务经济。
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