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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    多维视野下的埃及形势透析

    摘要

    后穆巴拉克时代的埃及面临多重矛盾和问题相互交织的复杂局面。在国内政治方面,各个政治势力和派别在短期内做出重大妥协的可能性微乎其微,执政的穆斯林兄弟会与其他政治势力派别的矛盾难以调和,埃及社会各个政治和利益团体之间的分歧和对立在短期内有上升的趋势,各个政治派别和势力在国家权力的分配和未来国家的政治走向问题上达成一致还需要比较长的时间。在经济发展方面,埃及经济多年来积累的深层次矛盾和结构性问题难以在短时间内得到根本解决,而国内政治形势又持续动荡,因此埃及经济在短期内仍将深陷增长乏力的泥沼,复苏前景尚不明朗。在外交领域,虽然新一届埃及政府在外交事务上颇有建树,但由于国内政治和经济形势的拖累,埃及要想真正回归中东第一政治大国的地位尚需时日。

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    Abstract

    The Post-Mubarak era in Egypt has shown a complex new situation. In domestic politics,it will be difficult for the ruling Muslim Brotherhood to reconcile the contradictions between itself and other political powers,and the differences between the various political and interest groups in Egyptian society will continue in the short term due to the rising opposition and hostility among the various political forces and factions,which leads to that the various political factions and forces need a relatively long time to reach agreement on the allocation of the state power and the future political direction of the country. The economic development of Egypt will also face difficulties in a short period because of the deep-seated contradictions and structural problems that have accumulated over the years in the Egyptian economy,and the continued unrest in the domestic political situation,which determines that the Egyptian economy in the short term will remain bogged down and its recovery outlook remains quite uncertain. Dragged down by domestic political and economic pessimistic situation,Egypt will take some time if it really wants to take back its position as the No.1 political power in the Middle East,although the new Egyptian government has made lots of progress in the diplomatic field.

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    作者简介
    张宏:张宏,北京外国语大学教授、博士生导师
    张明生:张明生,北京外国语大学博士研究生。
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