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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    2009~2010年拉丁美洲和加勒比经济形势

    摘要

    受全球金融危机及发达国家和世界经济低迷的影响,2009年拉丁美洲和加勒比经济呈V字形走势,全年经济先跌后升,出现近20年来最严重的衰退。全球金融危机通过对外贸易、侨汇收入和旅游收入等变化对拉美国家的相关产业产生影响,进而对整个地区经济造成直接或间接影响。为此,拉美和加勒比国家及时采取了反危机政策调整,其特点是:货币政策和财政政策并重,经济效益和社会效益并重;注重政策的反周期性和实用性。这些政策调整对拉美国家缓解全球金融危机的冲击、恢复经济增长产生了重大影响。2009年拉美和加勒比经济出现了一些新特点:不同国家和小地区之间的经济走势存在明显差异,但各国抵御危机的能力都有明显提高;大多数国家的主要宏观经济指标的波动要小于1982年债务危机以来的历次危机。2010年拉美和加勒比经济增速将逐步加快,但仍将面临全球经济不确定因素的挑战,后危机时期经济政策调整的深化、市场和产业结构的调整,都将决定拉美和加勒比国家能否实现未来的经济增长目标。

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    Abstract

    Under the circumstances of global financial crisis and economic downturn of the world,LAC economies sank into the most serious recession in 2009. Most countries’ economies slumped for the first half of the year and turned upwards for the rest months,presenting a trajectory in “V” shape. In face of the impacts of global financial crisis mainly transmitted through channels of trade,remittance and tourism to affect direct and indirectly the economic performance of the whole region,LAC countries adopted anti-crisis policies in a timely manner. These countercyclical policies featured by pragmatism and equal importance given to both monetary and fiscal policies,economic and social benefits have played an important role for Latin American countries to mitigate shocks of the financial crisis and to regain economic growth. New characteristics seen in LAC economies are the following:despite of the ever increasing divergence of economic trends among countries,all of them are better prepared to combat the crisis than ever before as major macroeconomic indicators of most countries show less volatility than they did in all crisis episodes since 1982. The author forecasts that LAC countries will accelerate their economic growth in 2010 although they have to deal with challenges posed by global economic uncertainty. Further policy fine-tuning,market and industrial structure adjustment during post crisis period will determine the possibility for LAC countries to meet their economic growth goals.

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    作者简介
    吴国平:吴国平,1986年毕业于墨西哥经济研究和教学中心,获经济和国际政治硕士学位。现为中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所所长助理、研究员、博士生导师,中国经济社会理事会理事。
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