经济增长、社会公平和政治民主是当今各国发展的时代主题,更是广大发展中国家不懈追求的奋斗目标。在长期深陷发展之困的拉丁美洲和加勒比地区国家中,智利以其近20年的探索和实践,走出了一条独特的发展道路,不仅实现了经济、社会和政治的成功转型,还即将成为走出“中等收入陷阱”的首个南美大陆经济体,进入高收入国家行列,其经验和启示意义影响深远,值得深入研究。
本文以智利还政于民20年的发展成就为切入点,对其发展道路作了深入探讨,得出以下观察:就经济转型而言,民主政府在基本延续了军政府时期奠定的自由市场制度的同时,通过不断加强财经纪律、维护央行独立性地位、稳步推行浮动汇率和深化金融体制改革等诸多方面的“结构改革”,保证了宏观经济政策的长期稳定,从而实现了经济平稳较快增长;就社会转型而言,民主政府一方面不断提高公共社会支出规模,减贫效果较为明显,成为完成联合国千年发展目标的样板国家,另一方面加强市场对资源的调节和配置,并辅以有效的社会政策,分别对医疗和养老金制度进行了改革和完善,部分地弥补其私有化缺陷,从而降低了穷人的进入门槛,提高了对弱势群体的保护力度;就政治转型而言,民主政府一方面合理地掌控了“转型正义”的力度,同时又提出了“原谅与忘却”原则,希望得到智利大多数民众的理解,从而实现民主和解,另一方面较好地把握了宪政改革节奏,在积极修宪强化法制的同时,对军队采取渐进式收权,从而保证了转型期间的政治和社会稳定。
基于以上经验,本文作出如下深层思考:在威权统治下实行自由市场经济改革并实现经济加快增长既是现实的也是可能的,而民主体制则要力避民粹主义倾向,确保改革的优先次序不致随意改变;智利通过组建联合政府为既定发展模式过渡提供了制度稳定,从而终结了其他拉美国家频发的体制性“钟摆现象”;威权时代建立的自由市场制度所产生的转型预期和制度准备保证了还政于民后社会政策具备“长着人脸的新自由主义”特征,有助于智利社会问题可治理性的持续显现;良好的经济制度和社会制度是实现社会发展的前提,也是最终实现政治民主的刚性条件,因此对于广大发展中国家而言,根据国情选择发展道路并对改革优先顺序事先作出统筹安排至关重要。
<<Chile has demonstrated its unique path of development over the past two decades whereat market economy and democratic politics were persistently sought by successive leftist civilian governments. Its experience of steady economic growth is enlightening for the developing countries,particularly many in the LAC regions facing the longstanding challenge of running out of the Middle Income Trap. Ever since the military returned government to the elective in 1992,Chile has witnessed an orderly socio-economic transition. It succeeded in strengthening financial regimes,empowering the central bank,retaining flexible exchange rates,advancing structural reforms of public spending sectors,including health care and pension systems. All such efforts did help the nation to have achieved the ‘transitional justice’ and broad reconciliation in light of the officially advocated ‘forgive and forget’ principle.
Based on the above observations,the keynote report authors find—1) even under an authoritarian rule,a nation is still possible to embark on reformist tracks. In other words,a centralized power may not necessarily contradict with a liberalist socio-economic state-building,particularly in a developing nation like Chile;2) Chile’s political transition to democracy proves that a coalition government helps stabilize the transition process and avoid the ‘pendulum effects’ ;3) although inaugurated by the militaries,the free-market system triggered reformist expectations and provided institutional preparations for the follow-up transition;last but not the least,a good control of reform pace is also a key prerequisite for an ultimate realization of political democracy. Therefore,despite choosing the right path of development in accordance with specific national circumstances,to determine the right priorities of reform agenda is essential to developing countries.
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