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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    世界石油市场 供求新格局与价格趋稳(2013~2014)

    摘要

    2013年,世界主要国家和经济体围绕地区主导权在经济、政治、军事、外交领域的争夺明显加剧,多极化趋势逐步显现,世界经济保持温和复苏态势,传统经济格局正在发生深刻调整。在此背景下,全球石油行业发展稳健,供需持续宽松,非OECD国家仍是世界石油需求的主要动力,非OPEC国家石油产量增长强劲,油价振幅收窄,上游勘探开发投资保持两位数增长,包括深海、极地、动乱的高风险区域在内的资源潜力大、回报高的风险勘探领域成为战略重点,新兴经济体石油进口量增幅下降,上下游并购交易活动降温较大,大型交易项目显著减少。2014年,预计全球石油需求增幅将略高于2013年,但石油供给增量依然会超过需求增量,市场供应充裕,油价大幅上涨可能性较低。

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    Abstract

    In 2013,the major countries and economies in the world significantly increased the competition for regional dominance in the economic,political,military,diplomatic field. The trend of world multi-polarization was emerging gradually. And the world economy maintained a moderate recovery rate. At the same time,the traditional economic pattern was undergoing profound adjustments. With this background,the global oil industries obtained the relative robust development. The supply and demand were still slack and flexible. Non-OECD countries were still the main demanders for world oil. A strong oil production growth of these countries narrowed oil price amplitude. Investments in the upstream exploration and development maintained double-digit growth,including deep oceans,polar regions,and the unrest areas with high risks. These fields however with high resources potential and high return became the key zones for strategic exploration. The growth of oil import in emerging economies declined,and also mergers and acquisitions in the upstream and downstream dropped significantly. The large projects trading activities were cooling down. This year,global oil demand growth is expected to be slightly higher than it was in 2013,but the incremental oil supply will still exceed the incremental demand. So the supply is adequate in the market,and the possibility of oil prices rising sharply is relatively low.

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    作者简介
    郭海涛:郭海涛,经济学博士,中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院副院长,副教授。
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