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王伟光
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李培林
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    世界天然气市场 供求与投资(2013)

    摘要

    2013年,世界经济缓慢复苏,地缘政治有所调整。天然气市场运行总体平稳。全球天然气探明储量呈现小幅增长趋势,增幅只有2个百分点,产量和消费量也平稳增长,供需基本平衡。与此同时,全球天然气贸易市场发展较快,贸易量平稳增长,LNG贸易年均增速仍超过管道气贸易,地位日益上升。2013年北美、欧洲和亚太三大区域市场天然气价格走势各异,北美天然气价格大幅反弹,但仍处全球市场低位;欧洲地区天然气价格总体保持平稳,但较上一年出现上涨;亚太地区LNG进口价从高位小幅回落,仍保持全球最高水平,三地价格差异较2012年明显缩小。2013年天然气探明储量遍布全球各地,东非天然气资源最引人关注,气源将在很大程度上供应亚太。页岩气持续受关注,在澳大利亚和阿尔及利亚均有重要发现。2013年世界范围天然气领域投资持续增加,页岩气和深水天然气资源开发投资升温。在全球油气上游市场,投资和并购交易大幅回落,下游资产交易同样大幅降温,交易地区主要集中在欧美发达地区。

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    Abstract

    In 2013,the world economy recovered slowly and geopolitics has been adjusting. Overall the natural gas market maintained a smooth operation. The world proved reserves of natural gas shows a slight growth of 2%only,and production and consumption have continued their steady growth with a basic balance between supply and demand on the market. At the same time,the global natural gas trade market had a rapid development as evidence that the volume of trade growth was steady. The average annual growth rate of LNG trade was still more than that of pipeline gas trade and its status increased. In 2013,among North America,Europe and Asia-Pacific regional markets,the natural gas prices changed differently. The natural gas price of North America rebounded sharply,but was still on a low level in the global market. Although the natural gas price in Europe region remained stable,it got higher anyway than in the previous year. LNG import price in the Asia-Pacific region fell slightly from high,but still on the highest level in the world. The price difference samong the three regions are significantly reduced compared with those in 2012. Proved reserves of natural gas found throughout the world in 2013,and the most notable natural gas resources was in Eastern Africa which to a large extent can supply the Asia-Pacific region. Shale gas sustained attention because in Australia and Algeria reserves were discovered. In 2013,worldwide investments increasingly continued in the natural gas field.Both the investment and development of shale gas and deepwater natural gas resource were warming up. In the global oil and natural gas upstream markets,investment and M & A transactions fell sharply. So did the downstream assets transactions. The transactions were mainly concentrated on the developed regions of Europe and North America.

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    作者简介
    刘毅军:刘毅军,中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院教授,博士。
    严佳敏:严佳敏,中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院应用经济学2013级硕士研究生。
    李艳丽:李艳丽,中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院应用经济学2013级硕士研究生。
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