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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    中国在非洲的国际处境及其演化趋势

    摘要

    作为系列研究报告“中国对非关系的国际战略研究”658396的首篇,《中国在非洲的国际处境及其演化趋势》注重将研究对象置于全球化和多极化这一世界经济、国际政治发展趋势的大背景下,以中非关系中的“国际因素”及大国在非洲关系中的“中国因素”为切入点,从大国与非洲关系、大国在非洲关系、大国间战略关系及中国崛起与国际体系变迁等多重“关系”互动的视角,来解析21世纪以来中国在非洲国际处境的演化及其走势。目前大国在非洲的利益关系和力量结构,基本反映了大国各自同非洲的历史渊源、与非洲的现实关系及对非洲的利益诉求,同时也在一定程度上折射出大国战略关系变化对彼此在非洲关系的传导效应。中国与西方大国在非洲的关系在经历了21世纪第一个10年的“博弈”与变化之后,双方已经从各自互不适应过渡到了彼此相互适应,因此,在可能对大国在非洲关系特别是中国在非洲国际处境走势产生实质性影响的诸多因素中,较之大国与非洲关系,处于此消彼长中的大国综合国力和分化组合中的大国战略关系的动态变化所占的权重更大。基于大国在非洲既存的力量结构、现实的“攻防态势”和可以预知的“确定性因素”,在21世纪第二个10年余下的7年时间里,大国在非洲的关系及中国在非洲的国际处境将呈现出“继承而又有变化”的总体演化态势。

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    Abstract

    International Situation and Trend of Its Evolution That China Faces in Africa,as the first paper of a series of research reports entitled China’s International Strategy for China-Africa Relations,aims to analyze the evolution trend of the international situation that China faces since entering the 21st century in Africa. This research has laid emphasis on placing the objects of studies under the macro-background of globalization and multi-polarization which represent the development trend of world economy and international politics. It has taken the “international factors” in China-Africa relations and the “Chinese factors” in big powers’ relations in Africa as the starting point,with the research angle focusing on the interactions among several relations such as those between big powers and Africa,relations among big powers in Africa,strategic relations among the big powers,as well as China’s rise and changes of the international system. The interest relations and the power structures of the big powers in Africa reflect basically the historical origins of the big powers in Africa,their current relations with Africa and their demands for interest in Africa,which also,to a certain extent,reflect the conductive effects of the relations between big powers in Africa arising from the changes of the strategic interactions between them. After the “game” and changes of the relations between China and the Western powers in Africa in the first decade of the 21st century,the two sides have been in transition from inadaptation to adaptation to each other. Therefore,among the multiple factors which may affect big powers’ relations in Africa and,especially,the evolutionary trend of the international situation that China faces in Africa,comparing with the big power-Africa relations,dynamic changes of the undulating comprehensive national power of the big powers and strategic relations in realignment and regrouping between the big powers will play more important roles. Based on the existing power structures and the actual “offensive and defensive” posture between big powers,as well as the predictable “certain factors” in Africa,relations between the big powers in Africa and the international condition that China faces in Africa will present generally an “inherited but changeable” posture within the remaining seven years of the second decade of the 21st century.

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    作者简介
    张宏明:张宏明,中国社会科学院创新工程项目“中国对非关系的国际战略研究”首席研究员。
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