本文分析了中国和俄、哈、吉、塔、乌等上合组织成员国之间的贸易结构和特点。通过构建一般均衡模型,研究了上海合作组织自由贸易区对中、俄、哈、吉、塔等国的宏观经济变量产生的综合性影响。研究结果表明:在上合组织区域经济一体化进程中,一个完全没有关税壁垒的上合组织自由贸易区将增加绝大多数成员国的福利、实际GDP和外贸进出口。
<<The paper analyzes the trade structures and features between China and Russia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan. By constructing general equilibrium models,a SCO FTA’s comprehensive impacts on its members’ macro-economic effects have been deliberately simulated. Our research results predict,during the process of economic integration within SCO,a SCO FTA with no bilateral tariffs would increase the SCO members’ welfares,real GDP and their foreign exports and imports.
<<Keywords: | FTAEconomic ImpactSCO |