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我国经济增长从2013年第4季度开始进入新一轮短周期的缓慢下降期，2014年经济景气再次降温，进入“偏冷”区间，但年内可能止跌企稳，并有望继续保持大体平稳的运行态势。预测2014年和2015年GDP增长率将分别达到7。4%和7。2%左右，CPI上涨率分别为2%和1。8%左右，经济增长和物价波动幅度明显减缓。2012年以来经济周期呈现“微波化”的新特征，我国经济增长已经逐步进入“新常态”阶段。
<<The economy has been in the recession phase of this short cycle from 2013Q4. The economic climate turned down again in 2014 and has stepped into the ‘partial cold’ state. However，it maybe stop downward trend within 2014 and is expected to keep roughly stable in 2015. We predicate that the GDP growth rate would reach about 7.4% and 7.2% respectively in 2014 and 2015，and meanwhile the inflation rate would be about 2% and 1.8% respectively. The amplitude of business and inflation cycle would become much smaller. The business cycle has been featured with wavelet since 2012，and the economic growth have gradually turned to the “new normal” stage.
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