2014年主要发达国家货币政策有所分化,但总体保持了超低利息环境。在此背景下,国际金融风险不断累积,市场流动性增加,杠杆性融资仍维持较高水平,金融资本与实体经济进一步脱节。与此同时,全球银行业“大到不能倒”对金融监管提出严峻挑战。在市场走势方面,长期国债市场深受美联储量宽退出政策影响,收益率走势一波三折,但总体因流动性充裕度呈下降势头;新兴市场债券融资活跃,发达国家政府和金融机构债券发行下降,但公司债发行受寻求收益动机推动显著增加;全球股市在宽松货币支持下总体走出牛市行情;外汇市场美元相对其他发达经济体货币升值,新兴市场国家货币走势有所分化。业已累积的金融风险是否在2015年酝酿新一轮危机取决于这一轮杠杆性融资能否得到有效抑制,充裕信贷能否转化为企业投资和盈利。
<<The monetary policies in developed countries tended to follow divergent paths due to different pace of recovery. However,the overall global financial condition remained accommodative for investors’ risk appetite. As a result,financial risks continued to accumulate because of excessive liquidity and highly leveraged financing. The yield curves of long-term government bonds reflected market expectation about the Fed’s QE tapering. Developed countries’ corporate bonds’ issuances remained dominant globally,backed by investors’ “search for yield” motivation. Global equity markets boomed. The US dollar appreciated against most major currencies. However,exchange rates of emerging economies followed divergent trends,reflecting different policies and economic situations. In the coming 2015,whether the accumulated financial risks turn into another crisis will be determined by how the leveraged financing activates are curbed,and whether the excessive liquidity is transformed into corporate investment and earnings.
<<Keywords: | Foreign Exchange MarketBond MarketInternational Financial RiskEquity MarketToo Big to Fail |