国际金融危机爆发六年以来,主要发达经济体复苏进程缓慢、不断低于预期同时日渐分化。危机后主要发达经济体实施的超宽松非传统货币政策,对防止金融市场崩溃和加速恶化的通货紧缩起到关键作用,但在资产负债表修复期由于私人部门需完成去杠杆化进程,货币传导机制不畅,独力难当大任。在非传统货币政策这个全新的领域,不能排除它在长期带来难以预计的后果。随着金融周期和高悬的公共债务风险日益进入政策视野,中央银行退出非传统货币政策的时机和策略考量已不能再由危机前普遍信奉的通胀目标制主导进行。但货币政策应当如何对金融稳定等目标做出反应,却仍是待探索的命题。防止新泡沫的出现是未来货币政策的一项基本挑战,这需要货币政策对金融风险采取更为对称的反应策略。
<<Six years after the Great Financial Crisis,major advanced economies (AEs) have been on a prolonged path to recovery,undershooting the forecasts and showing divided trends. The untra-easing unconventional monetary policy implemented by major AEs after the crisis has played a key role in stemming the financial market meltdown and downward spiral of deflation. However,due to the indispensible private sector deleveraging during balance sheet repairs,monetary policy transmission has been impaired and the monetary policy cannot fulfill the savior’s role in economic recovery,while in the unchartered area of unconventional monetary policy,unintended consequences cannot be ruled out. With financial cycles and overhanging public debt looming in the policy horizon,the timing and strategy of exit of unconventional monetary policy should not be dominated by the doctrine of inflation-targeting prevailing before the crisis. Nevertheless,it remains to be explored as to how the monetary policy should react to the goal of financial stability. Preventing new bubbles in the future is a fundamental challenge faced by the monetary policy. It demands a more symmetric strategy of monetary policy in dealing with financial risks.
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