随着以“金砖国家”为代表的新兴经济体崛起,自冷战结束以来的传统国际格局正面临新的调整。与此同时,中国目前也处于崛起的关键时期。准确评估当前中国以及世界其他主要国家的实力和影响力,对于正确把握国际格局变化趋势、恰当规划我国外交战略具有重要意义。本报告考察了2013~2014年美国、英国、法国、德国、日本、中国、俄罗斯、印度、巴西等9个国家的实力和影响力现状。考察结果显示,“一超多强”的态势尚未发生根本性的改变,美国目前依然是无可争议的“唯一超级大国”。未来能否由“一超”变“两超”关键取决于中国的发展。从综合实力的构成要素看,传统西方大国的优势在科技,新兴大国的优势在资源。中国综合国力的进一步提升,基础是经济持续稳定发展,难点是科技水平的飞跃,核心是国际政治动员力的提高。
<<The existing international configuration established since the end of the Cold War is facing new adjustments due to the rise of the emerging economies represented by the BRIC countries. China,as one of the newly emerging powers,is now at a critical period in terms of its rise. Therefore,it is of great significance that we accurately assess the relative capabilities and influence of the major powers. This report explores the capabilities and influence of the United States,Britain,France,Germany,Japan,China,Russia,India,and Brazil during the 2013-2014. period. The results show that the situation of “one superpower and multi great powers” has yet to be fundamentally changed and the United States is still the undisputed “sole superpower” in the world. Whether the international structure will be changed from “unipolarity” to “bipolarity” in the future will depend on China.
<<Keywords: | China’s RiseInternational InfluenceComprehensive National PowerForces for International Political Mobilization |