东欧剧变以来,全球有36个国家进行了41场独立公投,涉及大、中、小国家,其中25个在欧洲,18个获得独立并得到了国际社会的广泛承认。公投是一个地区获得独立正当性的重要形式,但不是唯一形式。美国与欧盟的支持,是通过公投所建立的国家获得其他大多数国家承认的必要条件。过去一年,独立公投又成为国际政治新热点。2014年3月克里米亚公投与9月的苏格兰公投影响最大。前者使得克里米亚实现了“脱乌入俄”,引发了大国势力在乌克兰问题上的角逐,并刺激了一些民族与地区的独立倾向与公投欲望。后者虽没有使苏格兰获得独立,但在和平、理性、透明地处理独立/分离问题上,给全球提供了某些借鉴经验。全球有许多国家存在独立/分离运动,欧洲是重点地区,尤其是在原苏联地区。未来几年,全球独立公投发生的频次有可能上升,而遭受分离主义势力威胁的国家将面临维护国家统一的更大压力。
<<A referendum is an important way to achieve the legitimacy of national independence. Endorsement by the United States and the EU countries,as well as other major powers,is always a necessary precondition for new countries to receive global recognition. During the past year,referenda have become a new focal point in international politics. The most significant two cases took place in Crimea and in Scotland. The former resulted in many serious consequences:Crimea broke away from Ukraine,joined Russia,and the major powers embarked on fierce competition over Ukraine. In this situation,some other nations or areas were encouraged to seek independence by conducting a referendum. The latter case did not lead to the independence of Scotland,but it revealed some experience for other countries to cope with independence/separatism issues by peaceful,rational,and transparent methods. Independence/separatism movements exist in many countries,especially in the areas of the former Soviet Union and some EU countries. Therefore,in the coming years the frequency of independence referenda will increase,and countries suffering threats from separatist forces will face more pressures to maintain unity.
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