通过对中国未来劳动力供给趋势的分析说明,在劳动力人口供给减少过程中,计划生育导致的少子化,使家庭更易于集中资金投资于子女的教育。这与中国大学的扩招一起,在提升人口素质的同时,分流了劳动力的供给渠道,加速劳动力从第一产业向第二和第三产业、从国有单位向非国有单位、从中西部地区向东部地区的转移。在这个转移过程中,市场对职业技能劳动力的需求更为旺盛,但对普通高校大学生存在结构性的需求不足。如果大学生的供给增速长期快于社会转型与产业技术的升级增速,那么,中国的结构性失业会长期持续。
<<Based on the analysis of the trend of future labor supply in China,this article argues that,during the relieving of labor supply pressure,families get more easily to concentrate funds on children’s education,because of the current low birth-rate caused by Family Planning. Together with university enrollment expansion,this becomes the channel to get labor supply separated besides improving population quality. Furthermore,this process accelerates the labor transmission from the primary industry to both secondary and tertiary industry,from state-owned unit to non-state-owned unit,as well as from middle-west area to east area. During this transmission,the labor market will require more professional skilled labor than university graduates and the latter will face a short of elasticity demand. This structural unemployment will last for a long time if the growth of university graduates is faster than that of social transformation and industrial upgrading.
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