在长期执政预期之下,日本对朝鲜半岛政策从对朝“接近”、“忍耐”日韩关系降温以及积极介入半岛事务三个层面发生了较为引人注目的变化。在对朝政策上,安倍内阁在第一阶段的主要目标是通过频繁接触来解决“绑架问题”,中、远期目标是实现关系正常化。在对韩政策上,在两国关系的结构已发生重大转变的情况下,日本将继续“忍耐”关系降温所带来的后果,也在寻找新的战略思路。在对朝鲜半岛政策上,在日本外交与安全战略发生重大变化的背景下,安倍政府正在积极谋求战略性地介入半岛事务,力图维持“不统不战”但相对稳定的半岛局势,并借机发挥作用甚至影响地区政策议程。“三重战略目标”能否及发挥何种效用,仍有待进一步跟踪与观察。
<<In light of the expectation for Abe’s long-term administration,Japanese policy to Korean Peninsula has undergone changes on three levels,referring to the closer contact with North Korea,the “tolerance” with the worsening relations with South Korea and the more active participation in the affairs of Korean Peninsula. As for the level of the policy to North Korea,the short-term target of the Abe administration is to solve the abduction issue through closer,and the long-term target is to realize the normalization of relations between Japan and North Korea. As for the policy to South Korea,Japan continues to “tolerate” the consequence of cooling bilateral relations and meanwhile searches for new option of strategy. As for the policy to Korean Peninsula,in the context of complicated security environment,Japan actively seeks to participate in the affairs of strategically,with the aim of playing a large role in influencing the agenda setting. To what extent“the triple strategic targets” in policy toward Korean Peninsula set by Japan will be achieved is worth further observation.
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