本文通过无限状态区制时变的动态因子模型,基于高维的金融变量指标体系,实现对我国金融状况指数的估计。结果显示:2011年以来,在稳健型货币政策的引导下,在经历了弱势回调的过程之后,于2014年末企稳回升;与此同时,伴随着世界经济的回暖,不利于中国金融状况的外部冲击影响也逐渐在减弱;向前10个月的预测结果显示,在2015年末之前,我国金融状况指数在回升的过程中仍存在短期震荡反复。
<<Through the infinite state of time-varying dynamic factor model,based on high dimensional index system of financial variables,this paper estimates the financial conditions index in our country. Results show that our country financial conditions index has been undertaking the impact of the financial crisis,and has passed the digestion phase of stimulus. Since 2011,under the steady monetary policy guidance,after the process of weak callback,the financial conditions have been in stabilized situation in late 2014. At the same time,along with the recovery of the world economy,the external impact of the financial condition which is not conducive to China is also gradually weakened. The first 10 months of the prediction results show that before the end of 2015,China’s financial conditions index is still in short-term shocks iterative process during the recovery.
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