2015年世界经济复苏乐观因素增加。美国经济复苏稳中有升,欧盟经济经历短暂曲折后复苏趋势再次抬头,日本经济在消化了提高消费税的负面影响后重拾升势,印度、东盟经济复苏势头所有扩大,埃博拉疫情受到控制、非洲经济再现活力,经验证明世界大宗商品价格下跌利大于弊,将拉高世界经济增长水平,各国政府纷纷采取宽松货币政策支持经济发展,等等,诸因素为中国扩大出口营造出较好环境,预计2015年中国出口增长有望达到8。0%。相比之下,2015年中国国内经济下行压力较大。国务院总理李克强在政府工作报告中提出2015年中国经济增长目标为7。0%左右,在积极的财政政策和保障固定资产投资方面令人印象深刻,增加了一些信心,但设定的社会零售商品总额增速目标偏于乐观。建议央行采取力度较大的宽松政策,预计2015年中国进口有望增长4。9%。
<<The positive factors of the world economic recovery increase in 2015:the US economy recovers steadily and is rising;the EU economy resurges after experiencing a brief but tortuous period;the Japanese economy regains recovery after digesting the negative effects of raising the consumption tax;the economic recovery situation of India and ASEAN expand;Africa’s economic vitality reappears while its Ebola outbreak was under control;the benefits of falling commodity prices outweigh the risks,which is conducive to world economic growth;governments are adopting loose monetary policy to support their economies and so on,all of which contribute to China’s export expansion by creating a better environment. The growth rate of China’s export is expected to rise 8.0 percent in 2015.In contrast,downward pressure on China’s economy will continue to mount in 2015. China targeted economic growth of approximately 7 percent in 2015,according to Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report. The practice of proactive fiscal policy and the insurance of investment in fixed assets are impressive and boosting confidence,while the prediction for the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods tend to be a bit rosier. Under the premise of the implementation of looser policy by the Chinese central bank,China’s import is expected to grow at the rate of 4.9 percent in 2015 by our mathematical models analysis.
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