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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    2009~2014年玻利维亚发展形势

    摘要

    2014年玻利维亚整体政局比较稳定。在10月举行的新一轮总统选举中,莫拉莱斯获得连任,进入第三个执政期。执政党“争取社会主义运动”在议会中仍占2/3多数席位。而反对派联盟由于内部利益分歧,实际仍处于分裂和脆弱状态。莫拉莱斯政府除继续推进国有化改革外,还提出了雄心勃勃的“工业化”目标,将金融体系的改革延伸到数字货币领域。2014年玻利维亚经济增速放缓,但各项经济指标基本向好,尤其通货膨胀控制得力。2014年莫拉莱斯继续推行社会福利计划,提高工资,改善民众生活,但仍存在一些社会不安定因素,小规模社会冲突不断。2014年,玻利维亚与美国在古柯种植和反毒等领域仍充满矛盾,阻碍了双方全面外交关系的建立;与智利在出海口问题上的冲突加剧;与秘鲁在跨洋铁路选线中发生了龃龉;与中国的合作进一步多元化和深入化。

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    Abstract

    Bolivian political situation was relatively stable in 2014. Bolivia’s President,Evo Morales of the leftist ruling Movimiento al Socialismo(MAS),won a landslide victory in the October 12th election and entered his third term in office. The MAS also received a two-third majority in both houses of Congress so that it needs to enact constitutional amendments and continue to control all of the country’s institutions. The opposition remained weak and performed poorly,although they formed some coalitions for the election. They were hampered by division and a lack of nationwide appeal. Morales continued to pursue a state-led development model to deepen the nationalization and industrialization reforms in 2014. The GDP growth was slowed down slightly in 2014,due mainly to a slowdown in the hydrocarbons industry. But it was still the third-highest rate in the region,only after Dominican Republic and Panama. Major economic indicators were improved,and the inflation rate was controlled to a good level. Morales continued to expand social welfare programs and raised the level of minimum wage and real wage in the public sector. There were still serious contradictions and tensions between Bolivia and the US,preventing the re-establishment of full diplomatic relations. Hostility between Bolivia and Chile persisted in 2014 still due mainly to Bolivia’s attempt to restore its access to the Pacific coast. There were some contradictions between Bolivia and Perú in the transatlantic railway line selection. The relationship with China was strengthened,underpinned by China’s increasing economic interest in Bolivia.

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    作者简介
    宋霞:宋霞,历史学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所综合理论研究室副研究员。
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