2012年,朝鲜半岛南北双方,中国、美国、日本、俄罗斯等影响朝鲜半岛局势演变的主要行为体都先后实现了政权或政府更迭。2013年是冷战后朝鲜半岛局势周期性演变长、中、短、微四个周期的开启之年,朝鲜半岛局势演变进入新阶段,对未来朝鲜半岛局势演变意义非凡。客观公正地评价当前朝鲜半岛局势,最重要的是选择一个抽象的可概括大量事实、经得起检验的分析框架。基于对冷战后20多年朝鲜半岛问题的初步理论总结,以及对2013年朝鲜半岛局势演变过程的跟踪观察,本文拟评估2013年影响朝鲜半岛局势演变最重要的两对关系——朝鲜半岛南北关系与中美“新型大国关系”的互动过程。为此,本文首先根据以往的实证研究结果,说明朝韩关系和周边大国之间围绕朝鲜半岛的互动关系对朝鲜半岛局势的关键性影响。其次,揭示朝鲜半岛南北关系的基本特征,指出中美关系对冷战后朝鲜半岛南北关系演变的作用。然后,运用这些理性分析框架,解读2013年朝韩关系和中美“新型大国关系”的互动作用。在结论部分,将展望未来1~2年朝鲜半岛南北关系与中美“新型大国关系”互动的可能情形。
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In 2012,the main actors who effect the evolution of the Korean peninsula situation,as the two sides of inter-Korea,China,the US,Japan,Russia,had all realized the regime or government change.Thus,2013 has been the four types of cyclical evolution of long,medium,short,micro cycles of Korean Peninsula situation after the Cold War,and the situation evolution on the Korean peninsula has entered a new stage with a great significance for the future evolution of the Korean peninsula situation.To evaluate the current situation on the Korean peninsula objectively and impartially,it’s the most important thing to choose an analytical framework abstracted from facts and will be amenable to facts.Based on the preliminary theories on the Korean Peninsula issues after the Cold War,as well as the observation about the Korean peninsula situation evolution in 2013,the paper intends to assess the interactive process of the two most important relationships affect the Korean peninsula situation evolution in 2013:the relations of North-South Korea and the new pattern of relationship between great powers of Sino-US.To this end,based on the results of previous empirical research,this paper shows the critical impact of interaction of inter-Korean relations and the neighboring powers around the Korean Peninsula on the Korean peninsula situation.Furthermore,this paper reveals the basic characteristics of the relations between North-South Korea,and elaborates the role of China-US relations for the North-South relations evolution after the Cold War.Then,with the rational analysis framework above,makes an interpretation of the interaction between the inter-Korean relations and the new pattern of relationship between great powers of Sino-US in 2013.As a conclusion,the paper would look into the possible scenarios of interaction in future 1-2 years between the Sino-US relations and inter-Korean relations.
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