In 2008，Japan economy is under high concern because of slowing growth，increasing unemployment，and deteriorated inflation. Some even worried about a possible recession. In our analysis，we find reasons for bad performance of Japan economy are mainly the exogenous shocks including crude oil price surge，Wall Street crisis and others. In 2009，the crude oil price is possible to decrease，while the impact of Wall Street crisis will emerge. Under this circumstance，Japan’s economic growth will be around 0.5 percent，still being possible to avoid a recession. Also，we think the increasing wages and deteriorating industrial condition should be given the priority for the policy makers.