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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
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李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    国会中期选举后奥巴马政府外交政策面临的挑战

    摘要

    奥巴马政府的外交政策在过去几年中饱受诟病,不仅受到国会共和党人的激烈批评,民主党内部对其外交政策也不乏争议。奥巴马在叙利亚内战、伊朗核问题和乌克兰危机问题上的表现使得共和党强硬派将其看作软弱无能的总统,普通选民对其应对恐怖主义和“伊斯兰国”的政策也愈加不满,这部分导致了民主党在2014年中期选举中的失败。面对“伊斯兰国”的突起和反恐形势的恶化,奥巴马的伊拉克和阿富汗政策面临彻底失败的危险。奥巴马要实现艰难的政策平衡,一方面要防止地区局势失控,另一方面又不能放弃结束两场战争的承诺。在未来两年,面对由共和党完全控制的国会,奥巴马的外交政策将面临更多指责和更大阻力,但仍有可能在伊核问题、与古巴关系正常化、气候变化外交方面取得进展。在这些问题上,奥巴马很难寄望于得到国会的支持,是否会彻底成为“跛脚总统”取决于奥巴马能否有效运用行政权力推进其既定的外交目标。最后,亚太再平衡战略最有可能成为奥巴马的外交遗产,但在其继续推进的过程中,需要防止卷入地区冲突并且努力平衡与地区大国的关系。

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    Abstract

    The foreign policy of the Obama Administration has sparked much criticism not only from the Republicans but also from within the Democrat Party in the last few years. The hardliner Republicans label him as weak and indecisive due to his attitudes towards Syria Civil War,the nuclear issue of Iran,and the Ukraine crisis. And even worse,American voters have been increasingly dissatisfied with the government’s failure to hold back the rise of ISIS and the deteriorating situation of counter-terrorism,which in part accounted for the failure of the Democratic Party in the midterm elections. Faced with rise of ISIS and the deteriorating situation of counter-terrorism,and the potential danger of a complete failure of the policy toward Iraq and Afghanistan,President Obama has to strike an uneasy balance:on the one hand,to prevent the regional situation from loss of control;on the other hand,to fulfill his promise in ending the two wars.

    In the next two years,as the Republicans have taken control of the Congress,the Obama Administration’s foreign policy will face more criticism and resistance. Despite that,the government still has a chance to make breakthrough in Iranian Nuclear crisis,the normalization of the diplomatic relations with Cuba,and climate change diplomacy. For these issues,President Obama cannot expect much support from the Congress,though. In order not to become a “lame duck,” President Obama needs to make effective use of the administrative power to achieve the diplomatic goals. Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy most probably becomes the diplomatic legacy of the Obama Administration. In the process of promoting it,special attention should be paid to avoiding any involvement in regional conflicts and great efforts should be made to achieve a balanced relationship with regional powers.

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    作者简介
    齐皓:齐皓,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国选举政治、美国亚太政策、中国与周边国家海洋争端。
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