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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    中亚地区安全形势分析与预测

    摘要

    中亚安全问题一直备受人们关注。近年来,由于国际和地区政治和经济形势发生了剧烈变化,中亚地区安全形势面临的威胁和挑战有不断增多的趋势。影响因素包括大国在中亚的竞争、经济发展受到俄罗斯受西方国家严厉制裁牵连、宗教极端思想蔓延和恐怖势力活动猖獗、阿富汗局势的影响、中亚国家间固有矛盾难以解决等。我们不能拿中亚和中东地区相比是因为虽然中亚国家与那些陷入战乱的国家有类似的特点,但也有本质的区别。虽然目前中亚安全形势比较严峻,但我们仍然认为在近一两年内,虽然局部地区或个别国家可能在一定时间内会出现动荡情况,但总体上中亚地区还是可以保持稳定,处于可控状态。

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    Abstract

    The Issue of the Midasian security always receives wide attention. In recent years,the situation of the Midasian security has demenstrated a trend of increasing deterrents and challenges due to dramatic changes in the development of the international and regional situation of politics and economy. The influential factors include the competition among world powers in Miasia,the involvement of its economic development by the serious imposition of sanctions by Russia and the Western countries,the promulgation of religious extremism,the impact of Alfgan situation,the inherent conflicts between the Midasian countries and the difficulty of their resolution,etc. We cannot compare the Midasian Region to the Mideastern Region because there are essential differences between the two although the Mdiasian countries have some characteristics similar to those of the countries deeply bogged down in the warring strifes. In spite of the relative grimness of the Midasian security at the present,we still believe that the Midasian Region as a whole can keep stable and controllable although there may appear disturbances in local areas or individual countries at certain point of time in a year or two.

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    作者简介
    吴宏伟:吴宏伟,法学博士,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所中亚研究室主任、研究员。
    苏畅:苏畅,法学博士,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所中亚研究室副研究员。
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