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李培林
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    生猪养殖户基本特征与病死猪处理行为间的相关性研究 仿真实验的方法

    摘要

    近年来,在我国病死猪乱扔乱抛或流入猪肉市场的事件屡禁不止,日益危及环境保护和人体健康,从源头上治理这个问题显得十分紧迫。本文以生猪养殖户的病死猪处理行为为研究对象,沿着生猪养殖户基于“成本—收益”处理病死猪的逻辑思维,在综合已有研究文献的基础上,假设养殖年限、养殖规模、政府政策、对相关法律法规的认知以及对生猪疫情及防疫的认知等因素影响养殖户对病死猪的处理行为,构建行为概率模型,采用计算仿真实验方法,研究生猪养殖户的基本特征与病死猪处理行为选择间的关系,并模拟行为选择的变化过程。研究结果显示,养殖年限和养殖规模对养殖户病死猪处理行为选择的影响并非简单的线性关系,但政府政策、对相关法律法规的认知以及对生猪疫情及防疫的认知与养殖户的行为选择呈正相关关系,同时与政府无害化处理补贴政策相比较,政府的监管与处罚对规范养殖户的病死猪处理行为更加有效。本文的研究意义就在于锁定具有病死猪负面处理行为的养殖户集合体的基本特征,为政府从源头上治理病死猪乱扔乱抛与流入猪肉市场等乱象提供了决策参考。

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    Abstract

    Recently in our country,the event of farmers throwing dead diseased pigs or dead diseased pigs illegally flowing to the market keep occurring that has increasingly threatened the protection of environment and put human health in danger. So,it is extremely urgent for governing the dead diseased pigs from the source. The research perspective of this paper is farmers’disposing behaviors of dead diseased pigs,assuming farmers alone with the logic thought of“cost-benefit”to deal with dead diseased pigs. On the basis of summarizing the existing research literature,this paper concludes several factors,such as the year of farming,farming scale,the cognition of relevant laws and regulations,pig disease and epidemic prevention and so on,proposing hypothesis that aforementioned factors can affect farmers’disposing behavior. By building behavior probability model,adopting computational simulation experiment method,this paper researches the relationship between the basic characteristics of pig farmers and their disposing behaviors of dead disease pigs. The results demonstrate that the relationship between the year of farming and farming scale and disposing behavior choice of dead disease pigs are not simply linear. However,it is a positive correlation between the cognition of government policy,relevant laws and regulation,pig disease and epidemic prevention and behavior choice of farmers. Comparing with government subsidy of harmless treatment,government supervision and penalties for regulating disposing behavior of dead disease pigs are more efficient. The meaning of this essay is to target the basic characteristic of farmers who are choosing negative behavior to deal with dead disease pigs,and to supply decision-making reference for government to manage the phenomena of dead disease pigs throwing and flowing into market from the source.

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    作者简介
    许国艳:许国艳,女,江苏丹阳人,江南大学商学院硕士研究生,研究方向为食品安全管理。
    张景祥:
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