2014年下半年以来,国际石油价格出现暴跌。油价急剧变化的表面原因既有市场供求关系的变化,也有中东地缘政治形势的影响;而深层原因却是一场相关方面的战略利益博弈。这种博弈可能使国际石油市场进入一个长达数年的低油价新周期。低油价周期的持续,给中东经济带来的负面影响可能大于正面影响,对于伊朗核问题谈判产生推动作用,但不会改变中东地区多极化的地缘政治格局。
<<International oil prices have collapsed since the second half of 2014. Apparently,this sharp change resulted from the unbalanced demand and supply,as well as from the geo-political situation in the Middle East. The in-depth driving forces however,are related to a game of strategic interests. This game could drive the international oil marked into a new low price cycle that may last for years. A sustained low price cycle may produce more negative than positive impact on the Middle East economy. It may also play a role in promoting the Iranian nuclear negotiation but would not change the multi-polarized geo-political structures in the Middle East.
<<Keywords: | Middle EastOil PricesGeo-politics |