我国经济景气指标在2015年第二季度止跌企稳,之后可能在“偏冷”区下部保持大体平稳的运行态势。在稳增长的政策作用下,短期内经济景气再次降温进入“过冷”区间的可能性较小。预测2015年和2016年GDP增长率将分别达到6。9%和6。8%左右,CPI上涨率分别为1。5%和1。9%左右,经济增长和物价波动将继续呈现新常态下的“微波化”特征。
<<The economic climate has stopped its downward trend since the second quarter of 2015 and is expected to keep roughly stable in the “partial cold” range. Influenced by the policy of keeping the growth of the economy stable,it is unlikely to change to a downwards-oriented trend and step into the “cold” state in a short time. We predict that the GDP growth rate in 2015 and 2016 will reach about 6.9% and 6.8% respectively,and meanwhile the annual inflation rate should be about 1.5% and 1.9% respectively. The cycles of economics and inflation should also be viewed as a wavelet in the “New Normal” stage.
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