2015年前三个季度台湾总体经济走势平缓。本文从实质面、金融面等方面入手,分析了台湾的经济形势。在实质面上,国际商品贸易低迷,服务贸易成长低于预期,民间消费趋于保守,投资持续低迷,公共支出紧缩;在金融面上,货币形势宽松,物价年增长率平缓。展望2016年,在汇总台湾内、外多家研究机构对台湾经济增长预测值的基础上,本文认为台湾经济增长率在3%以下,预测区间在2。0%~3。3%。总体上来说,2016年台湾整体经济形势将呈现平缓增长趋势。
<<Taiwan’s economy maintained steady development in the first three quarters of 2015. From the substantive and financial aspects,this paper analyzes the economic situation in Taiwan. On the substantive side,the international commodity trade downturns,the growth of service trade is lower than expected,private consumption tends towards the conservative,and public spending cuts austerity. On the financial side,the monetary situation is loose,and prices are rising smoothly. Based on summarizing the forecast for the economic growth of Taiwan,this paper argues that Taiwan’s economic growth rate will be 3% or less in 2016,and the forecast range is about 2%-3.3%. Overall,the economic situation in Taiwan in 2016 will show a flat growth trend.
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