2015年主要国家的政策利率仍然保持在较低水平,全球流动性总体充裕。然而美联储年内加息的不确定性以及新兴市场金融风险的显现,使得国际投资者的风险规避意识增强。在国债市场上,主要国家的中长期国债收益率曲线波动性有所提高;全球股票市场在年内剧烈动荡,尤其在8月出现整体暴跌;外汇市场上,美元延续自2014年以来的升值势头,与欧元和日元走势分道扬镳,新兴市场国家货币普遍贬值,并出现竞争性贬值态势。展望未来,主要国家货币政策分化将对国际金融市场走势产生重要影响,而其中美联储在何时、以何种节奏加息仍将是市场变化的决定性因素。
<<The low interest rate environment continues in 2015,providing sufficient liquidity into the global financial markets. However,due to the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the growing financial risks in emerging markets,the volatility of major financial markets increased significantly. The yield curves of major government bonds turned to be flat,and the stock markets tumbled,especially in August,2015. In the foreign exchange markets,the US dollar appreciated against the euro and Japanese yen,while most emerging economies expedited their currency depreciation,showing a sign of competitive devaluation. Going forward,the divergence of major economies’ monetary policies remains a key factor for the trends of global financial markets,and the Fed’s decision about interest rate policy will remain the major driver for the markets.
<<Keywords: | Foreign Exchange MarketGlobal LiquidityEquity MarketInternational Financial RisksSovereign Bond Market |