2015年,乌克兰经济大幅下滑,政府信用缺失,东部战火重燃,国家陷入全面危机。危机解决的障碍主要有:其一,乌国内民族-国家认同分歧没有解决,经济-社会发展不平衡没有解决;其二,美俄仍存有冷战思维,大国对抗的心理基础没有消失;其三,欧盟到底要建成一个高质量的以发展经济为主要目标的联盟,还是搞成一个适当降低门槛以扩大政治影响的联盟,这个问题没有解决。美俄欧外部力量僵持不下,调解能力有限;乌内部分裂客观存在,为统一国家蒙上阴影。乌克兰新政府和欧盟明显加快了一体化进程。俄罗斯遭受孤立,进一步转向东方。总的来看,乌克兰危机前景不明,局势不容乐观。
<<In 2015 Ukraine faced many problems:the economy declined precipitously,the government lost its credit,and the renewed conflict in the east became worse. These problems dragged the country into a full-fledged crisis. The main obstacles to resolving the crisis include the following. First,the domestic national identity of Ukrainians remains unresolved,and the imbalance sin socio--economic development are still obvious;Second,the United States and Russia still have a Cold War mentality and confront each other psychologically;Third,the goals of the EU is still unclear:is the EU aiming to achieve high-quality economic development or to expand its political influence at a lower threshold?The external forces of the United States,Russia,and the EU are deadlocked,and their capacity for mediation is limited. The Ukrainian internal split casts a shadow over possible reunification of the country. Ukraine’s new government and the EU haves ignificantly accelerated the integration process,and Russia has suffered isolation,pushing it farther to the East. Future prospects of the Ukraine crisis are uncertain,but the overall situation is not optimistic.
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