2015年,南海局势继续向复杂化方向演进。部分东盟成员国(主要是南海权益声索国)在南海的所谓“维权”力度明显加强。东盟国家与美国、日本等地区大国的海上安全合作持续深化。东盟机制也面临新的挑战和机遇。由于美日等地区大国强势介入南海问题,加之南海问题法理斗争的日益激烈,南海问题已经出现双重意义上的质变。东盟国家的南海政策调整既是南海局势变化的动因之一,又是南海局势阶段性演变的结果。南海新变局或预示着中国的南海维权之路将面临更多的风险和挑战。在南海问题上,中国需要坚持“双轨”思路,把握好东盟国家和东盟关系两个大局。
<<Situation on the South China Sea has become more and more complex in 2015.Some Southeast Asian claimants to the South China Sea have dramatically strengthened “right-defending” actions. Maritime security cooperation among the ASEAN countries,US and Japan will be sustained and deep. Now ASEAN’s development is facing both new challenges and opportunity. Because of the US and Japan’s deeply intervention in the South China Sea,and the intense international legal struggle correlated with rights and interests in the region,the South China Sea issue has undergone dual qualitative change. The adjustment of ASEAN countries’s South China Sea policy are both driving forces and results of change on the South China Sea. The change on the South China Sea might implicate more risks and challenges for China’s “right-defending” road on the sea. China must stick to its two tracks of thinking and maneuver his relationship with both ASEAN countries and ASEAN in dealing with the South China Sea issue.
<<| Keywords: | South China SeaASEANGrand strategyInternational ArbitrationSecurity Cooperation on the Sea |