在经历30余年的高速增长后,中国经济开始转入中高速增长的“新常态”。中国经济的“新常态”将对与之有密切经贸往来的日本经济带来波及效应。短期内,将通过投资、消费途径给日本经济带来挑战:通过投资减速影响日本对华投资、对华出口,进而波及日本制造企业的经营业绩;通过投资结构调整,影响日本的海外投资格局;通过消费减速,削弱日本旅游产业的经济波及效应。从中长期看,将为日本经济带来新的机遇:随着中国消费市场的不断扩大,产业结构的转型升级以及节能环保领域投入的进一步增加,日本企业将从中获得更多的发展机遇。中日双方都应进行适应性调整,以实现新的互利共赢。
<<After three decades of rapid growth,the Chinese economy is now shifting gear from the previous high speed to a medium-to-high speed growth,or to a “new normal” phase. What does it mean to Japan when China enters into a “new normal” stage?This paper intends to address this critical issue and we conclude that China’s new economic normality will bring both challenges and opportunities on Japan’s economy. In the short term,with capital investment in manufacturing slowing,the Japanese export to China may slid down to some extent and the business performance of several Japanese manufacturing enterprises may be affected;with China’s investment structure constantly adjusting,the Japanese FDI in China should make necessary adjustments and the competition for FDI between the two countries in other districts may increase;besides,the economic ripple effect of Japan’s tourism industry would be weakened if there were a slowdown in the consumption of Chinese visitors to Japan. In the long run,however,the Japanese companies and its economy will benefit from China’s continuous expansion of domestic consumption market,transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and further investment in the field of energy-saving and environmental protection. The two sides should make adaptive adjustments under the circumstances in order to achieve a win-win situation.
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