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王伟光
    男,汉族,1950年2月出生,山东海阳人。1967年11月参加工作,1972年11月加入中国共产党,博士研究生学... 详情>>
李 扬
    1951年9月出生,籍贯安徽,1981年、1984年、1989年分别于安徽大学、复旦大学、中国人民大学获经济学学... 详情>>
李培林
    男,山东济南人。博士,研究员,中国社会科学院副院长,中国社会学会副会长,中国社会科学院社会学研究所副所长。《社会... 详情>>

    中国经济“新常态”对日本经济的波及效应

    摘要

    在经历30余年的高速增长后,中国经济开始转入中高速增长的“新常态”。中国经济的“新常态”将对与之有密切经贸往来的日本经济带来波及效应。短期内,将通过投资、消费途径给日本经济带来挑战:通过投资减速影响日本对华投资、对华出口,进而波及日本制造企业的经营业绩;通过投资结构调整,影响日本的海外投资格局;通过消费减速,削弱日本旅游产业的经济波及效应。从中长期看,将为日本经济带来新的机遇:随着中国消费市场的不断扩大,产业结构的转型升级以及节能环保领域投入的进一步增加,日本企业将从中获得更多的发展机遇。中日双方都应进行适应性调整,以实现新的互利共赢。

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    Abstract

    After three decades of rapid growth,the Chinese economy is now shifting gear from the previous high speed to a medium-to-high speed growth,or to a “new normal” phase. What does it mean to Japan when China enters into a “new normal” stage?This paper intends to address this critical issue and we conclude that China’s new economic normality will bring both challenges and opportunities on Japan’s economy. In the short term,with capital investment in manufacturing slowing,the Japanese export to China may slid down to some extent and the business performance of several Japanese manufacturing enterprises may be affected;with China’s investment structure constantly adjusting,the Japanese FDI in China should make necessary adjustments and the competition for FDI between the two countries in other districts may increase;besides,the economic ripple effect of Japan’s tourism industry would be weakened if there were a slowdown in the consumption of Chinese visitors to Japan. In the long run,however,the Japanese companies and its economy will benefit from China’s continuous expansion of domestic consumption market,transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and further investment in the field of energy-saving and environmental protection. The two sides should make adaptive adjustments under the circumstances in order to achieve a win-win situation.

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    作者简介
    刘红:刘红,经济学博士,辽宁大学国际关系学院教授,全国日本经济学会理事,主要研究领域:日本经济。
    田赵祎:田赵祎,辽宁大学国际关系学院2013级硕士生,主要研究领域:日本经济。
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